Can Bitcoin survive in the future? Questioned by Warning from Analyst

Table of Contents

Introduction: 

After the tremendous stock market gains of the previous week, investors are feeling a little apprehensive as we start a new trading week. 

The findings of a regional manufacturing activity survey and the earnings reports of key financial and tech businesses will be closely watched by traders in the forthcoming week.

Recap of Last Week’s Trading: 

Due to data signaling a reduction in inflationary pressure, traders were upbeat last week. 

It raised optimism that the Federal Reserve would decide to hold off on tightening monetary policy. 

Additionally, large banks’ earnings season got off to a good start, providing hope for a second-quarter reporting season that could be stronger than anticipated.

Performance of the stock market: 

Over the last week, all five trading days showed increases for the Dow Industrials, and most days saw gains for other important averages as well. 

Particularly strong performance from small-cap companies pointed to a broad-based market uptrend. 

The 30-stock Dow Industrials achieved its highest level since November 30, 2022, while the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite Index, and Dow Industrials all reached their 15-month highs.

What to Expect This Week: 

To assess the state of the economy as we enter the current week, traders will closely examine the findings of a regional manufacturing activity survey.

 They will also look out for any pre-announcements from businesses. 

Starting on Tuesday, when a sizable number of financial and IT businesses are set to report their performance for the most recent quarter, the real action will begin in terms of earnings news flow.

The Future: 

Although the market’s attitude has improved as a result of last week’s significant gains, investors are still cautious and wary. 

The question of whether the Federal Reserve would suspend interest rate increases in response to statistics on inflation and the results of firms’ quarterly reports will be the main topic of discussion.

US Indices’ Performance for the Week Ended July 7

Stocks

Value

Performance (+/-)

Value

Date

Time

Volume

Market Cap

Nasdaq Composite

14,113.70

0.0332

14,113.70

2023-07-14

13:30 ET

2.33B

20.8T

S&P 500

4,505.42

0.0242

4,505.42

2023-07-14

13:30 ET

2.52B

34.4T

Dow Industrials

34,509.03

0.023

34,509.03

2023-07-14

13:30 ET

2.44B

25.4T

Russell 2000

13,335.70

0.0356

13,335.70

2023-07-14

13:30 ET

1.63B

4.2T

Gains in the Stock Market Are Exploding Despite a Mid-Term Election Year Low

Since the stock market’s bottom in October of the mid-term election year, it has recently seen strong increases. 

While some experts are worried about this sudden increase, Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick is more upbeat and believes there may still be space for more gains.

Incredible Growth in the S&P 500 A Typical Market Cycle Observation

Detrick notes the outstanding 26% increase in the S&P 500, a significant benchmark for the US stock market. 

It is higher than the closing low it hit on October 12 of the midterm election year. 

Detrick tells investors that, despite how extraordinary this spike may appear, it is actually pretty typical within the context of market cycles.

Mid-term Election Year Lows and Market Performance are a Positive Historical Trend

Historical data reveals that after hitting a bottom in a mid-term election year, equities often do very well. 

Detrick points out that, on average, equities have increased by more than 32% the year after a mid-term year low. 

This implies that the present market boom may still be able to continue moving upward.

Detrick’s Upbeat View: Market Gains Following Mid-Term Election Lows Have Been Recurring

Detrick’s study presents a more upbeat view while some experts express worry over the durability of the market’s recent advances. 

It emphasizes that there has been a consistent trend of substantial market increases following mid-term election lows, making the present market movement a regular occurrence.

The S&P 500 is 26% above the midterm yr closing low set on 10/12/22.

Amazing as this is, this is actually perfectly normal. We found stock’s gained more than 32% on avg a yr after a midterm yr low.

Many chose to ignore this once again this year. pic.twitter.com/mDOHSz3R1p

— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) July 14, 2023

Futures Performance On Monday

Futures

Performance (+/-)

Value

Date

Nasdaq 100

-0.09%

11,332.25

2023-07-15

S&P 500

-0.17%

4,389.25

2023-07-15

Dow

-0.26%

33,982.00

2023-07-15

R2K

-0.32%

12,990.75

2023-07-15

Premarket Trading Data

ETF

Symbol

Price

Change

SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

SPY

$448.46

-0.18%

Invesco QQQ ETF

QQQ

$378.88

-0.05%

Upcoming Economic Data:

Catalyst

Time

Expected Effect

New York Federal Reserve manufacturing survey

8:30 a.m. EDT

Business conditions index expected to fall.

Treasury auction of three- and six-month bills

11:30 a.m. EDT

No clear effect expected

June industrial production report

9:15 a.m. EDT

Industrial production expected to rise slightly

June retail sales data

8:30 a.m. EDT

Retail sales expected to rise slightly

Housing starts data

8:30 a.m. EDT

Housing starts expected to rise slightly

Building permits data

8:30 a.m. EDT

Building permits expected to rise slightly

Investors will be attentively monitoring a number of economic data as we enter a new week since they might have an influence on the stock market. 

There are a number of significant stories from Main Street that might affect market movements in addition to corporate earnings statements.

The regional manufacturing activity report for July, the industrial output report for June, the retail sales report for June, and housing market data will all be examined by traders. 

It’s important to note that the market won’t be impacted by Federal Reserve remarks at this time.

In preparation for the forthcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 25–26, the central bank has started a blackout period.

The publication of the July regional manufacturing survey data from the New York Federal Reserve is an important event to keep an eye on. 

It is anticipated that the business conditions index, which is based on this poll, would drop, perhaps signaling a slowdown in economic activity. 

In July, the reading is predicted to be -4.4, down from 6.6 in June.

Focused Stocks:

Symbol

Price

Change

Tesla, Inc.

TSLA

$764.40

Market Cap

$744.83B

 

Volume

1.13M

 

Open

$752.60

 

High

$764.40

 

Low

$750.00

 

Symbol

Price

Change

Activision Blizzard, Inc.

ATVI

$82.02

Market Cap

$65.63B

 

Volume

1.72M

 

Open

$80.40

 

High

$82.02

 

Low

$79.72

 

Global Market Update: Asian Markets React to Chinese GDP Data, Crude Oil Slips, and Treasury Yields Fall

Due to disappointing Chinese GDP figures, crude oil futures declined 1.66% to $74.07 during the early European session on Monday. 

The commodity did, however, increase by 2.11% over the previous week.

The 10-year Treasury note benchmark saw a decrease of 0.043 percentage points to 3.777%.

Asian markets ended on a mediocre note as traders responded to Friday’s underwhelming Wall Street leads and the release of the Chinese GDP figures. 

The markets in Hong Kong and Japan remained shut.

China’s second-quarter GDP figures revealed growth that was faster than the first quarter but lagged behind forecasts. 

The report also showed a slowing trend in June, which cast doubt on the future expansion of the second-largest economy in the world.

The European markets were down on Monday in late morning trading.

Conclusion: Investors are feeling cautious optimism as a result of the stock market’s recent increases. According to Ryan Detrick’s research, the recent increase in the S&P 500 is a typical phenomenon of market cycles, leaving the possibility for potential future gains. This week, investors should pay particular attention to economic indicators and earnings releases since they might have an impact on market movement. The manufacturing report from the New York Federal Reserve and the GDP figures from China are important occurrences. While the dismal Chinese GDP numbers cause changes in the global markets, two stocks to keep an eye on are Tesla, Inc. and Activision Blizzard, Inc. To successfully navigate the market, one must be alert and adaptable to shifting circumstances. The volatile nature of the stock market highlights the need of making educated and balanced investing decisions.

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